Combined with the precipitation forecast based on the NCFP GFS model on August 8, 2025 and multi-source data such as lithology, DEM and hydrological conditions along the Karakoram Highway, the TRIGRS model was adopted to conduct the landslide risk assessment in the northern area that was greatly affected by rainfall. The NCEP GFS precipitation forecast shows that on August 8th, the overall rainfall along the Karakoram Highway will decrease, with the highest value reaching 13mm.
The assessment results show (Figure 2) that the extremely high and highly prone areas are mainly distributed in a band-like pattern along the main river valley corridors in the north, concentrated in mountainous areas with significant terrain undulations and deep rivers, especially in the sections around Chilas and Gilgit and north of Gulmit. These areas generally have steep slopes and high-density steep slopes, and the foot of the slope is close to major rivers and transportation arteries. Locally, they form clusters of high-risk values for landslides, constituting the core area of the landslide risk pattern in the northern region. In contrast, the overall landslide susceptibility in the south is still mainly of medium grade, with scattered spatial distribution and a patchy pattern. This difference may be related to the extensive glacier coverage in the area south of Chilas. The lagging response of glaciers to rainfall runoff and their impact on surface stability may, to a certain extent, suppress the rapid and concentrated manifestation of landslide risks. Moreover, the terrain in the southern region is relatively flat, and the topography has a significant impact on the susceptibility level of landslides. Overall, the rainfall on August 8th was relatively low. Despite the low rainfall in both the southern and northern regions, the spatial range of the extremely high and high-susceptibility areas in the southern region did not show significant expansion, remaining relatively small and maintaining a relatively stable spatial distribution. The northern region was controlled by complex terrain and a dense river valley network, and the distribution of high-susceptibility areas for landslides remained relatively stable. And the scope is relatively large, and the coverage area has not changed significantly.
A further susceptibility analysis was conducted on the GilGit-Skardu route. Due to the large area of the high-susceptibility zone on the section from Gilgit to Skardu, the affected highway section is also relatively long, with a total length of 126.30 kilometers. Near Skardu, due to the steep terrain and concentrated rainfall, the risk of landslides has significantly increased, and enhanced monitoring and preventive measures are needed.
From the results of susceptibility, it can be seen that the sections along the KKH such as the Chilas-Gilgit section and the section north of Gulmit, which are highly prone to occurrence, should be regarded as key risk areas. Special attention should be paid to disasters such as high and steep cutting slopes and mudslides during and after rainfall.
结合 2025 年 8月 8日基于 NCFPGFS 模式的降水预报与喀喇昆仑公路沿线的岩性、DEM、水文条件等多源数据，采用TRIGRS模型，对受降雨影响较大的北部地区展开滑坡危险性评估。NCEPGFS降水预报显示，8 月 8日，喀喇昆仑公路沿线整体降雨量下降，最高值为13mm。
评估结果表明（图2），极高及高易发区主要沿北部主要河谷走廊呈带状分布，集中出现在地形起伏显著、河流深切的山地地带，尤以 Chilas、Gilgit 周边及 Gulmit 以北路段最为典型。这些区域普遍存在陡峭坡面、高密度陡坡，且坡脚邻近主要河流与交通干线，局部 形成滑坡高风险值的聚集区，构成了北部地区滑坡风险格局的核心区域。相较之下，南部整 体滑坡易发性仍以中等等级为主，空间分布零散，呈现斑块状格局。此差异可能与 Chilas 以南地区广泛分布的冰川覆盖有关，冰川对降雨径流的滞后响应及其对地表稳定性的影响可能在一定程度上抑制了滑坡风险的快速集中表现。且南部地区地形较为平坦，地势对于滑坡易发性的等级影响较大。总体而言，8月8日降雨量总体较少，南部区域与北部区域在降雨量都较少的情况下，南部区域的极高及高易发区的空间范围未出现明显扩展，范围较小，且保持比较稳定的空间分布，北部地区受控于复杂地形与密集河谷网络，滑坡高易发区分布仍保持相对稳定，并且范围较大，覆盖范围亦未发生明显变化。
对Gilgit-Skardu 线路进行进一步的易发性分析，由于从Gilgit到Skardu地区路段的高易发性区域面积较大，因此受影响的公路路段线路也比较长，总长为126.30km。在Skardu附近，受地形陡峭和降雨集中影响，滑坡风险显著增加，需加强监测与防范措施。
从易发性结果可以看出，沿 KKH 穿越的Chilas-Gilgit路段 、Gulmit以北段等高易发性路段应被视为重点风险区段，需重点关注在降雨过程中与雨后的高陡切坡、泥石流等灾害。
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